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Journal of Research in Health Sciences، جلد ۱۷، شماره ۲، صفحات ۰-۰
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| عنوان فارسی |
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| چکیده فارسی مقاله |
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| کلیدواژه‌های فارسی مقاله |
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| عنوان انگلیسی |
Suicide Mortality Trends in Four Provinces of Iran with the Highest Mortality, from 2006-2016 |
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| چکیده انگلیسی مقاله |
Background: Suicide is a major cause of unnatural deaths in the world. Its incidence is higher in western provinces of Iran. So far, there has not been any time series analysis of suicide in western provinces. The purpose of this study was to analyze suicide mortality data from 2006 to 2016 as well as to forecast the number of suicides for 2017 in four provinces of Iran (Ilam, Kermanshah and Lorestan and Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad). Study design: Descriptive-analytic study. Methods: Data were analyzed by time series analysis using R software. Three automatic methods (Auto.arima, ETS (Error Transitional Seasonality) and time series linear model (TSLM)) were fitted on the data. The best model after cross validation according to the mean absolute error measure was selected for forecasting. Results: Totally, 7004 suicidal deaths occurred of which, 4259 were male and 2745 were female. The mean age of the study population was (32.05 ± 15.48 yr). Hanging and self-immolation were the most frequent types of suicide in men and women, respectively. The maximum and minimum number of suicides was occurred in July and August as well as January respectively. Conclusions: It is suggested that intervention measures should be designed in order to decrease the suicide rate particularly in the age group of 15-29 yr, and implemented as a pilot study, especially in these four provinces of Iran, which have a relatively high suicide rate. |
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| کلیدواژه‌های انگلیسی مقاله |
Suicide,Mortality,Interrupted Time series,Iran |
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| نویسندگان مقاله |
هاجر نظری کنگاوری | hajar nazari kangavari
احمد شجاعی | ahmad shojaei
سید سعید هاشمی نظری | seyed saeed hashemi nazari
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| نشانی اینترنتی |
http://journals.umsha.ac.ir/index.php/JRHS/article/view/3149 |
| فایل مقاله |
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| زبان مقاله منتشر شده |
en |
| موضوعات مقاله منتشر شده |
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| نوع مقاله منتشر شده |
Original Articles |
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